24-25

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sun Dec 22, 2024

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Today a person can trigger large </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>persistent slab avalanches </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>that break on weak layers buried in the middle of the snowpack or near the ground. These persistent slab avalanches have become less likely since snowfall and strong winds ended late Wednesday, but the potential size and consequences remain large.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>During the first half of this week strong winds drifted new snow into thick, heavy slabs (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-aXzlPHrYA"><span><span><span><strong>… video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). On Wednesday there were multiple large natural avalanches near Cooke City (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCdhitUHk1o"><span><span><span><strong>…;, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/24/large-persistent-slab-avalanche-h… photo</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/24/persistent-slab-avalanche-fisher"… photo</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>), and an avalanche on Saddle Peak broke 1-3 feet deep (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32548"><span><span><span><strong><span…;). On Tuesday Ian triggered an avalanche remotely (from lower angle terrain nearby) on Buck Ridge near Big Sky (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32497"><span><span><span><strong><span…;), and on Friday a skier had a large collapse in the Bridger Range (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32582"><span><span><span><strong><span…;).&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Choose small, simple, non-wind-loaded slopes with clean runouts free of hazards like rocks, trees or cliffs. If you have any doubts about snowpack stability avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees and be cautious of runout zones below.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Yesterday on Buck Ridge a snowmobiler triggered a 12” deep</span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span> </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>wind slab avalanche (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32601"><span><span><span><strong><span…;). Strong winds last night might have formed fresh </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>wind slabs</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>, and a few potentially unstable drifts could remain from earlier in the week. Look for signs of wind-drifted snow and be cautious of wind-loaded slopes, especially where consequences of a slide are higher due to terrain traps.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Carefully and continuously assess the snowpack and terrain for avalanche potential, and travel one person at a time on steep slopes or through runouts. The avalanche danger is MODERATE.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out: Events and Education Calendar

Snowmobiler triggered wind slab on Buck Ridge

Buck Ridge
Northern Madison
Code
SS-AM-R2-D1.5
Elevation
9500
Aspect
NE
Latitude
45.17190
Longitude
-111.38000
Notes

From email: "Rode buck today.  It was very windy this week.  Open areas are quite scoured, but there are still great stashes to be found if you hunt around.  We triggered a 12" soft wind slab on a NE facing slope at 9.5k'." 

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Snowmobile
R size
2
D size
1.5
Problem Type
Wind Slab
Slab Thickness
12.0 inches
Vertical Fall
50ft
Slab Width
100.00ft
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

Blue Creek snowpack

Date
Activity
Snowmobiling

ECTP 15 75cm up from ground. HS90-110 9000ft SE aspect. Down 1000 feet similar aspect we also got propitiation up 23cm with a HS of 55cm. Photo from the 9000ft pit.

Region
Island Park
Location (from list)
CENTENNIAL RANGE
Observer Name
zach bailey

Soft slabs on Buck

Date
Activity
Snowmobiling

From email: "Rode buck today.  It was very windy this week.  Open areas are quite scoured, but there are still great stashes to be found if you hunt around.  We triggered a 12" soft wind slab on a NE facing slope at 9,5k'." 

Region
Northern Madison
Location (from list)
Buck Ridge
Observer Name
Julian Gerardi

Warm at the Maid

Date
Activity
Skiing

We got into the Maid basin around 9:30 am while things were still cold. Much evidence of the recent wind event in the alpine with widespread wind slabs ranging in thickness from an inch to feet. There was some natural avalanche activity on the peak south of mt Bole. 
 

Got an ECTN 19 and 23 on a SE aspect at 9300’ HS 95cm

This was on a thin layer of facets sitting under a crust at 58cm. With a few prior hand pits showing planar shear on this layer we opted to keep it low angle.

By noon things were getting quite warm and Skiing through the thinly covered, glopy bushwhack back to the trail was our crux for the day. 

Region
Northern Gallatin
Location (from list)
Maid of the Mist

Buck Ridge

Date
Activity
Snowmobiling

Snow rangers went as far as 3rd Yellowmule. We saw no new snow but evidence of wind effect, including a sizable, probable windslab avalanche Top of Macattee Basin

Region
Northern Madison
Location (from list)
Buck Ridge
Observer Name
Sandy Jett

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sat Dec 21, 2024

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Large </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Persistent Slab avalanches </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>have been breaking on weak layers in the middle of the snowpack and near the ground (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCdhitUHk1o"><span><span><span><strong>…;, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/24/large-persistent-slab-avalanche-h… photo</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/24/persistent-slab-avalanche-fisher"… photo</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). If you get onto a steep slope today, expect to trigger a similar slide. These slides can be triggered from below, so be cautious passing beneath steep slopes as well.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The first big loading event of the season only ended 48 hours ago. Persistent weak layers are widespread - these weak layers (surface hoar and facets) often remain easily triggered for a couple days after a loading event ends and we expect that to be true today.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Human triggered avalanches are likely and the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. Choose slopes sheltered from the wind, less than 30 degrees steep, without steeper slopes above, for good, safe riding today.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Across the rest of our advisory area, triggering, large, dangerous avalanches is still possible, but they have become a bit less likely. The bulk of the last snowfall event had wrapped up by Monday night. High winds on Wednesday drifted lots of snow (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-aXzlPHrYA"><span><span><span><span><s… video</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>), but the snowpack has now had a few days break from loading.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Persistent Slab avalanches </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>remain a serious concern. Weak layers are widespread in the middle of the snowpack and earlier this week we saw avalanches breaking on them. On Tuesday, I triggered a slide from 200 ft away on Buck Ridge (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32497"><span><span><span><strong><span…;). On Wednesday, an avalanche on Saddle Peak broke 1-3 feet deep, and ran 1500 vertical feet (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32548"><span><span><span><strong><span…;). A large collapse yesterday in the Bridger’s reminds us that similar slides remain possible (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32582"><span><span><span><strong><span…;).</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Minimize potential consequences by choosing smaller slopes with clean runouts if you decide to get into steeper terrain today. Stay alert for signs of instability (cracking, collapsing, or poor test results).&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The avalanche danger is MODERATE.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out: Events and Education Calendar