GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Thu Jan 18, 2024
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>There is an Avalanche Warning in Cooke City and triggering avalanches is very likely. The mountains received over a foot of snow at higher elevations measuring about an inch of snow water equivalent, (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://avalanche.org/avalanche-encyclopedia/snowpack/snowpack-observat…;). Wind is strong and loading slopes at a fast clip. Ian is in Cooke City and was able to trigger a small slide from 100’ away (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtu.be/GJxMtiIQGbs"><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span>…;). This, along with daily observations of cracking, collapsing and avalanche activity, are clear signs that the backcountry is “game on” and dangerous. Heed Ian’s advice and stay out of all avalanche terrain and also from underneath these slopes (runout zones) since they can be triggered from below. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The avalanche danger is HIGH on all slopes.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The mountains around West Yellowstone and Island Park are unstable and dangerous and very close to Avalanche Warning criteria. Although only 2-3” of snow fell, the snowpack is extremely weak and wind has been blowing strong and loading slopes, especially at the ridgelines. Two days ago, Ian and I rode around Lionhead and had lots of cracking, collapsing and saw recent avalanche activity (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtu.be/MRJIwLgWH0M"><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span>…;). A few inches of snow and strong wind made the situation even worse. Do not get into avalanche terrain today and be extra careful about traveling in gullies or below open slopes. Avalanches can be triggered from below. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The avalanche danger is rated HIGH on all wind-loaded slopes and CONSIDERABLE on all others. In other words, triggering avalanches is likely on all slopes. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The Bridger Range received 5” of new snow (.7” SWE) with 15-40 mph west wind loading slopes. The snowpack is weak and supporting .7” of SWE will cause it to struggle and become very unstable. Wind is loading slopes at all elevations which a skier noted in Frazier Basin yesterday (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/29993"><span><span><span><strong><span…;). I do not recommend getting on or underneath steep slopes today. I expect triggering avalanches to be likely, especially on any slope that had been wind-loaded. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The avalanche danger is HIGH on wind-loaded slopes and CONSIDERABLE on all others.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The entire Gallatin and Madison Ranges received 3” of snow. At the ridgelines N-NW wind has been very strong with gusts of 75 mph, which is violent enough to make standing upright impossible. Wind at lower elevations is strong and swirly. Snow is being stripped, moved into drifts and creating unstable avalanche conditions. In areas with wind loading avalanches are very likely to be triggered. Reports from Taylor Fork (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/29996"><span><span><span><strong><span…;) and Bacon Rind (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/29995"><span><span><span><strong><span…;) indicate lots of cracking and collapsing. Dave found weak snow on Mt. Blackmore and in Beehive Basin a few days ago (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtu.be/UU09uX5hvGY"><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span>… video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtu.be/tj7d4Y8X5ms"><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span>… video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). Off the ridgelines it might be difficult to ascertain what has been wind-loaded or not. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Given the new snow and strong wind at all elevations, the avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on all slopes. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
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Collapsing and cracking at Bacon Rind
Went for a short tour near bacon rind, next pulloff to the south, toured up the burned out hill right across the street. It was real windy leaving my vehicle. Some notable whoomphing, and cracks forming 30 ft around me. I probably won’t be riding down there for a bit, the low angle stuff I like is too thin. Real thin down there with only about 40-60cm on the ground. Got a CT1 SC Q2 breaking about middle of snowpack, ectn 2, and ectp24.
Lots of Cracking, Taylor Fork
From FB: Taylor’s Fork today, 8-10 inches of new snow last night. A few small slides but tons of cracking.
Lots of Cracking, Taylor Fork
From FB: Taylor’s Fork today, 8-10 inches of new snow last night. A few small slides but tons of cracking.
Thin and weak near bacon rind
Went for a short tour near bacon rind, next pulloff to the south, toured up the burned out hill right across the street. It was real windy leaving my vehicle. Some notable whoomphing, and cracks forming 30 ft around me. I probably won’t be riding down there for a bit, the low angle stuff I like is too thin. Real thin down there with only about 40-60cm on the ground. Got a CT1 SC Q2 breaking about middle of snowpack, ectn 2, and ectp24.
Wind Loading at Lick Creek
Moderate to Strong, SW winds were picking up this evening at Lick Creek, resulting in moderate snow transport along the ground. Previous drifts were building in leeward aspects and small terrain features, and I noted several areas of very dense wind board while skiing and touring. I also observed some local collapsing of these wind slabs around my skis, and would expect this issue to be exacerbated higher elevations by increased wind transport and the widespread presence of pwls. I was surprised by the amount of snow available for transport, especially at the relatively low elevation, and was glad to be in simple, low-angle, terrain.
Upper snow pack slabbing up, active wind loading noticed.
Generally stiffer and more supportive wind slab in the upper snowpack overlying early season facets. Our approach track to Frazier basin was filled back in by wind load by the time we exited the zone( less than one hour)